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Collinson FX Market Commentary - Apr 20 - AUD drops on confidence loss

by Collinson FX on 20 Apr
Nacra 15 (NZL)- Aon Youth Worlds 2016, Torbay, Auckland, New Zealand, Day 4, December 19, 2016 Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Apr 20 - AUD drops on confidence loss

Apr 20 - European markets are under pressure with the arrival of the French elections. It look like a right-left run-off is the likely result but on the extremes. LePen and a candidate from the left will go through to a final run-off. This will drive markets into a nervous period, as speculation of the possible repercussions of a win by the Nationalists, centre around the the EU.

The whole EU would be over, as we know it, not to mention the single currency. The GBP has consolidated the massive gains booked, post the snap election call, despite the recovery in the Dollar. The EUR drifted back to 1.0700, while the GBP held above 1.2800, with firm trade data and benign inflation. US equity markets lost ground after top line numbers from IBM disappointed.

The Biege Book is likely to confirm rate rises, but this is conditional on economic progress, which will require legislative progress on taxes and health. The rising reserve is testing the 0.7000 number on the NZD, while the AUD fell below 0.7500, with softening Consumer Confidence.


Collinson FX Market Commentary - Apr 19 - Early election jumps UKP

Apr 19 - Markets remained pre-occupied with Geo-Political events engulfing the globe. North Korea continues to threaten nuclear war while the Middle East remains mired in conflict. European markets were thrown a curve ball, when UK PM May called for an early election, while the pending French election has the prospect of upending the EU.

The snap election in the UK is seen as an opportunity to consolidate and validate the Tory Govenrment leading in to Brexit. This surprised markets and the GBP surged to 1.2835! US Housing Starts contracted 6.8%, although Building Permits expanded 3.6%, while earnings eroded the previous gains.

The reserve softened allowing, the NZD to consolidate above 0.7000, supported by dairy prices. The RBA minutes confirmed the challenges of economic transition and the continuation of soft Monetary policy, giving the AUD little momentum, trading around click here and here Or for the latest update click here

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