Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- April 11, 2014 - Up and down, again

by Collinson FX on 12 Apr 2014
Katie Clark, NZ Womens Nationals 2014, © Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX market Commentary: April 11, 2014

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

Equity markets tumbled again as Global growth prospects degenerated. China Exports and Imports both contracted sharply sparking fears of a slowdown in the recovery. Demand slipped for commodities after ealier good news from Employment numbers released in Australia.

The Unemployment rate fell from 6.1%, to 5.8%, boosting the AUD back to 0.9450. The China data realease caused the AUD to slip back to 0.9420 and the KIWI testing 0.8700. The Bank of England chose to leave interest rates unchanged, although it is strongly tipped to follow the RBNZ as the early Central Banks to begin to raise rates, post GFC. The GBP dropped below 1.6800, although the EUR again tested 1.3900, a reflection of the maligned Dollar as much as any inherent local strength.

The Fed hurried to reassure investors that the extended low interest rate environment would continue, in an effort to stimulate growth, and lay waste to the reserve currency. Nervous equity markets are being trashed as many question the authenticity of the rally and worry the bubble is about to burst?!

Collinson FX market Commentary: April 10, 2014

Fed minutes, released overnight, revealed further support for stimulus via monetary policy. Central Bank influence is far from over and further QE will continue as growth stutters and employment lags. All the talk of tapering was nipped in the bud and equity markets surged.

Further expansionary monetary policy gives impetus to a recently flagging stock market with the DOW booking gains of close to 200 points. This continues to undermine the Dollar with the EUR rising to 1.3850 and the GBP testing 1.6800. This should come as no surprise, as Yellen is a renown dove and previous commitment to tapering, was the surprise.

Australian markets moved upwards, with Consumer Confidence rising and the currency benefiting the reserve weakness. The AUD moved up towards 0.9400 while the KIWI consolidated just under 0.8700. Gains are a reflection of the contempt the Fed has for the USD, which is being manipulated lower, to stimulate trade growth.

At some point confidence in the reserve currency will be undermined and this will be red flagged in the bond markets.


Collinson FX market Commentary: April 9, 2014
The US Dollar continued to suffer big hits as faith in the recovery of the economy waned. The EUR rallied to 1.3800 and the GBP 1.6750 supported by by some steady GDP growth and Industrial/Manufacturing Production.

Confidence has taken a hit, in the US, after lacklustre Employment data added further questions to the economic recovery. The precarious state of equity markets is more a reflection on the created bubble than the parlous state of economic affairs. The Fed has manufactured an environment, through excessive liquidity, that has allowed the situation to spiral out of control. The bond market will be the indicator that warns investors to the extent of over valuation.

Commodities reflect the weak reserve and asscoiated currencies posted further gains. The AUD hit 0.9350 and the KIWI 0.8660, reflecting steady domestic economic fundamentals, as much as a heavily impacted Dollar. Economic data will continue to drive markets, absence Geo-Political developments, undermining confidence and the USD.


Collinson FX market Commentary: April 8, 2014
Equity markets were sounding the alarm bells, as they crashed again, threatening all the year's gains. The NASDAQ lead the charge lower, this contradicts market bulls, who have promoting the growing recovery across the US economy.

There were no major US economic data releases overnight, so Friday's gloomy sentiment continued. The Dollar will continue to weaken, without any fundamental economic support, with the likelihood of continued dilution of the currency if the Fed stalls tapering.

The EUR rallied back to 1.3740 and the GBP broke back to 1.6600. Japan and Australia have signed a new trade agreement reducing tariffs and promoting trade. This had little immediate impact on the currency although must be good for economic growth prospects in both countries.

The AUD drifted to 0.9260 although NZ House Prices confirmed strong domestic demand pushing the KIWI back to just under 0.8600.

Close attention will be paid to economic data release this week and the impact this has on Monetary Policies.

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sept 25 - The price of Brexit
NZD fell to 0.7230, while the AUD drifted back towards 0.7600 European economic data was benign, as expected, with Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI data flat. French GDP contracted and promises of a future, without Britain, is not bright. The EU has brought in many members, over the years, but most are net 'takers'.
Posted today at 6:20 am
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Aug 10 - NZD does a weird rally
he AUD breaching 0.7700, while the NZD moves towards 0.7200. The NZD is rallying ahead of the RBNZ interest rate decision which confounds many as a cut in interest rates is expected. The rate is expected to be cut by to 2%, but this may be too little, too late. The RBA cut rates and the currency has rebounded strongly as interest differentials still prove attractive.
Posted on 11 Aug
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 11 - A Canary in the Mineshaft
Commodity currency gains were undermined on Fridays trade, AUD falling back to 0.7380, while the NZD fell to 0.7050! The RBNZ had a bad case of inertia, fuelling rallies in the currency, but the macro picture remains the underlying power. Take note of global bond markets, which are the canary in the mineshaft, with 10 year Bond around zero and the 10 year Japanese bond negative!
Posted on 11 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 10 - Kiwi in hot pursuit of AUD
The RBNZ left rates unchanged with an ease bias remaining. The KIWI surged on the news, to record highs for the year The NZD jumped a big figure on the news, to trade 0.7130, consolidating in global markets overnight. There were gains against most of the cross rates, while the AUD managed to trade 0.7440, only incremental higher.
Posted on 11 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 9 - Kiwi chasing down AUD
The AUD pushed up to 0.7470, while the NZD broke above the big, big figure of 0.7000! The KIWI moved north despite weaker local manufacturing data and ahead of the RBNZ rate decision. The Central Bank will be sorely tempted to combat the rising currency with rate cuts, but will probably rely on rhetoric and the forlorn hope of a US rate hike.
Posted on 10 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 8 - Antipodean storm surge
The NZD has also been dragged along by antipodean confidence, moving to 0.6950, encouraged by a falling reserve. The RBA left rates unchanged, despite temptation, with a neutral bias. The surging currency, rising to 0.7450, is being put in the hands of a Fed rate rise. The NZD has also been dragged along by antipodean confidence, moving to 0.6950, encouraged by a falling reserve.
Posted on 8 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 4 - Low jobs cripples USD
AUD spiked to 0.7360, while the NZD hit 0.6950! Non Farm Payroll added 38,000 jobs, which is the worst in more than 5 years, but the Unemployment number fell to 4.7%!? The commodity currencies took full advantage of the crippled Dollar, with the AUD spiking to 0.7360, while the NZD hit 0.6950!
Posted on 6 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 2 - AUD give up gains
The AUD gave up much of the previous days gains, falling to 0.7220, after falling Retail Sales contradicted GDP numbers The AUD gave up much of the previous days gains, falling to 0.7220, after falling Retail Sales contradicted GDP numbers. The NZD tested 0.6800, on the downside, hit by negative sentiment rather than any economic event. All eyes remain on the Non Farm Payrolls in the US tonight.
Posted on 2 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 1 - AUD regains some mojo
The AUD regained some mojo, pushing back to 0.7225, after a jump in export data. The NZD surged towards 0.6750, after a jump in Building Permits, but little should be read into housing data. The Australian story is more positive but it is all relative! It is performing better than most other OECD countries, but has serious fiscal and monetary issues, due to political incompetence.
Posted on 2 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 31 - All quiet on Memorial Day
Markets were quiet, as the US celebrated the Memorial Day holiday, taking a long weekend along with the UK. Commodity currencies traded in a range, with the NZD testing 0.6700, while the AUD failed to regain 0.7200. Further rate cuts by the RBA or RBNZ seem unlikely considering the pending threats to raise rates by the Fed. Central Banks remain the major driver of equity and currency markets, although economic data will influence daily moves, as will be seen for the remainder of the week.
Posted on 31 May