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Collinson FX Market Commentary- June 12, 2014 - Alice in Wonderland

by Collinson FX on 12 Jun 2014
Steinlager II - Start ANZ Fiji Race, June 7, 2014 © Richard Gladwell www.richardgladwell.com
Collinson FX market Commentary: June 12, 2014

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Equity markets tumbled with a sudden realisation that all is not well according to the World Bank! The review of global growth from 3.2% to 2.8% is another in a long line of downward moves. The World Bank and IMF continually espouse blue sky forecasts and then backtrack as reality hits home.

The ECB and the USA move post GFC corrupted Keynsian economic policies and run endless deficits to promote socialist polices rather than promote capitalism and self reliance. The result is endless mountains of debt which will destroy the economy.

At some stage the massive monetary expansionism will result in higher interest rates which will result in interest rates that will bankrupt economies. Interest rates will not rise for the right reasons, demand, but supply. At some stage the lure of low interest Fed and ECB debt will disappear and then bond rates will spiral and the GFC will seem a walk in the park. The EURO has been hit hard by the ECB and is self immolating. The single currency is trading 1.3525 and looks set to go lower. The Bank of England has changed course from the Fed and ECB and endeavours to battle back. The GBP recovers towards 1.6800 with a Governor who sees the light.

The RBNZ has no such luck with a leader who lives in Alice in Wonderland. He has raised rates in an attempt to reel in regional real estate bubbles ignoring the cost to the economy. He has raised the cost of capital and hit economic growth. The trade sector will be smashed as the NZD rises due to interest rate differentials and the resultant carry trade. RBNZ has raised rates again with .25% to 3.25%.

Update: RBNZ raised OCR by .25% to 3.25% as expected. RBNZ says high dollar is unsustainable. Kiwi up after announcement.


Collinson FX market Commentary: June 11, 2014

Markets were mixed overnight with slight swings between positives and negatives. The EUR continued to suffer the impact of the ECB's extra-ordinary negative deposit rates and crashed to 1.3540. The initial upward movement has been more than erased as the Central Bank continues massive monetary expansionism and wealth destruction.

The desired impact on trade will be almost immediate but the negative impacts will be more far reaching. UK Manufacturing and Industrial Production continued to recover, giving some support to the GBP, trading 1.6750. Italian GDP continued to contract, reflecting the struggles in the single market, and more especially the Med economies. US markets were steady, with the NFIB Small Business optimism reporting a tepid improvement, reflecting the marginal state of the domestic economy.

The AUD traded around 0.9350, despite a contraction in Job Advertisements and a deterioration in Business Conditions, reflecting some positive economic conditions emerging. The pressure from the RBNZ, to force the NZD lower, has begun to subside with the interest rate differentials encouraging the KIWI back towards 0.8500. Substantial economic data release or Central Bank activity will drive equities, currencies and Bonds for the remainder of this week.

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