Please select your home edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- March 7, 2014 - KIWI attractive

by Collinson FX on 10 Mar 2014
Jesse Logan - 2013 Mahurangi Regatta © Richard Gladwell

Collinson FX market Commentary: March 7, 2014!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

Tensions surrounding the Geo-Political developments in the Ukraine have overshadowed economic data during the last week. This is set to continue to dominate global markets during the coming week with no resolution likely in the short term.

Non-Farm Payrolls added 175,000, beating expectations, but this was largely ignored in equity and currency markets. The EUR held on to recent gains, trading 1.3875, with the GBP holding 1.6720. Indications are that recent economic weakness in the US, was due to the extreme winter weather conditions and may see some clear air ahead, with spring upon them.

This coming week will be totally focused on the Ukraine/Russia crises and major surprises on the global economic front would be required to influence markets. US Retail Sales and Central bank commentary may influence daily activities.

Commodity currencies fared well over the week, although an attempt at 0.9100 for the AUD, failed with the currency closing the week at 0.9050. The KIWI managed to hold gains around 0.8450 and certainly looks attractive levels to buy.

Collinson FX market Commentary: March 6, 2014

Geo-Political issues continued to dominate markets with a temporary impasse covering the Ukraine.

Diplomatic attempts are being made to lure Russia back to the negotiating table with Western powers but Russia will hold fast. Crimea is lost and attempts should be made to prevent further empire expansion. Calm spread across markets with little happening in Equities and Commodities remaining high.

The EUR held 1.3740 with the GBP finding legs, rising back to 1.6740. In the US, the ADP Employment report missed expectations, with only 139,000 private sector jobs added. The ISM Services reported weaker growth although Weekly Mortgages Applications rose 9.4%.

Finally some good news from Australia, with GDP growth beating expectations, rising 2.8% annually and showing some positive signs. Exports rose and domestic consumption also found some legs giving some long awaited positives to the ailing economy. The AUD reacted accordingly, rising towards the important 0.9000 mark.

The KIWI has continued to benefit growing economic strength and a soft reserve currency enabled a break towards 0.8400.

tronger domestic data has allowed a return of confidence but Geo-Political issues will dominate global markets.

Collinson FX market Commentary: March 5, 2014

Relief spread across resurgent equity markets as Putin evoked calm, reassuring many, that the Ukraine situation was not likely to explode. Putin expressed disdain for the US and their role in instigating revolution.

Blame was squarely apportioned to Western influence in a situation they do not understand. He asserted actions in the Crimea was to protect citizens and reserved the right to do so in other parts of the Ukraine.

Equities surged as Geo-Political events dominated markets and volitility will remain. The EUR was steady at 1.3730 and the GBP remained 1.6670. The RBA left rates unchanged but continued to jawbone the currency lower. The currency held fast and looks to international events and some improvement in local economic conditions to see any drive north.

The AUD traded 0.8930 with the KIWI steady on 0.8375. Geo-Political events will continue to overshadow economic events with Jobs set to dominate US markets when concerns fade.

Collinson FX market Commentary: March 4, 2014

Markets were hit hard by the Geo-Political issues evolving in the Ukraine. Russia has invaded the Crimean Peninsula and confined Ukranian troops to their barracks. In new developments, overnight, Russia has demanded Ukrainian surrender of some Naval forces.

Putin is taking advantage of the internal upheaval in Kiev to annex long desired and previously owned territory. It may be that he is satisfied with the semi-Autonomous zone, but he has ambitions to expand the Russian Federation.

Markets do not appreciate the upheaval and equities plunged globally, ignoring economic data. The flight to safety reversed recent weakness in the USD with the EUR falling back to 1.3735 and the GBP slipping to 1.6660. European Manufacturing PMI was steady but this was largely ignored. US Manufacturing expanded from 51.3 to 53.2 and Personal Income and Expenditure also booked gains.

Chinese Manufacturing continued to contract undermining confidence in commodity currencies.

The AUD plunged below 0.8900 but regained some lost ground overnight, moving back to trade around 0.8900. The KIWI quietly booked gains but the resurgent Dollar pushed the NZD back to 0.8330.

Turmoil from Europe remains the dominant driver of global markets with upheaval threatening to spread. A close look at the RBA today may have an impact on the currency locally.

For more on Collinson FX and market information see: and

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |

Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 25 - Oil does a quiet slide
The rising reserve and weaker commodity prices impacted the associated currencies, with the AUD testing 0.7600 The rising reserve and weaker commodity prices impacted the associated currencies, with the AUD testing 0.7600, while the NZD dropped back to 0.7110. Central Bank activity remains the major driver of currency direction, with economic data release, influencing the discussion.
Posted on 25 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 15 - Positive sign from US sales
AUD breaks back above 0.7600, while the NZD looks towards 0.7100 again US Retail Sales met expectations and were positive! This gave the markets some enthusiasm and lead to further speculation for the much vaunted Fed interest rate rise. This took the shine off the equity rally. The University of Michigan confidence report was decidedly negative
Posted on 17 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 12- Light week grinds idle minds
AUD dipping to 0.7540, while the NZD dipped to 0.7050 The EUR slipped to 1.1050, while the GBP tested new lows, falling to 1.2200. Commodity currencies were not immune, with the AUD dipping to 0.7540, while the NZD dipped to 0.7050. A light economic data week allows diversion and musing over Central Bank perceived actions.
Posted on 12 Oct
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Aug 10 - NZD does a weird rally
he AUD breaching 0.7700, while the NZD moves towards 0.7200. The NZD is rallying ahead of the RBNZ interest rate decision which confounds many as a cut in interest rates is expected. The rate is expected to be cut by to 2%, but this may be too little, too late. The RBA cut rates and the currency has rebounded strongly as interest differentials still prove attractive.
Posted on 11 Aug
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 11 - A Canary in the Mineshaft
Commodity currency gains were undermined on Fridays trade, AUD falling back to 0.7380, while the NZD fell to 0.7050! The RBNZ had a bad case of inertia, fuelling rallies in the currency, but the macro picture remains the underlying power. Take note of global bond markets, which are the canary in the mineshaft, with 10 year Bond around zero and the 10 year Japanese bond negative!
Posted on 11 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 10 - Kiwi in hot pursuit of AUD
The RBNZ left rates unchanged with an ease bias remaining. The KIWI surged on the news, to record highs for the year The NZD jumped a big figure on the news, to trade 0.7130, consolidating in global markets overnight. There were gains against most of the cross rates, while the AUD managed to trade 0.7440, only incremental higher.
Posted on 11 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 9 - Kiwi chasing down AUD
The AUD pushed up to 0.7470, while the NZD broke above the big, big figure of 0.7000! The KIWI moved north despite weaker local manufacturing data and ahead of the RBNZ rate decision. The Central Bank will be sorely tempted to combat the rising currency with rate cuts, but will probably rely on rhetoric and the forlorn hope of a US rate hike.
Posted on 10 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 8 - Antipodean storm surge
The NZD has also been dragged along by antipodean confidence, moving to 0.6950, encouraged by a falling reserve. The RBA left rates unchanged, despite temptation, with a neutral bias. The surging currency, rising to 0.7450, is being put in the hands of a Fed rate rise. The NZD has also been dragged along by antipodean confidence, moving to 0.6950, encouraged by a falling reserve.
Posted on 8 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 4 - Low jobs cripples USD
AUD spiked to 0.7360, while the NZD hit 0.6950! Non Farm Payroll added 38,000 jobs, which is the worst in more than 5 years, but the Unemployment number fell to 4.7%!? The commodity currencies took full advantage of the crippled Dollar, with the AUD spiking to 0.7360, while the NZD hit 0.6950!
Posted on 6 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 2 - AUD give up gains
The AUD gave up much of the previous days gains, falling to 0.7220, after falling Retail Sales contradicted GDP numbers The AUD gave up much of the previous days gains, falling to 0.7220, after falling Retail Sales contradicted GDP numbers. The NZD tested 0.6800, on the downside, hit by negative sentiment rather than any economic event. All eyes remain on the Non Farm Payrolls in the US tonight.
Posted on 2 Jun